The Bitcoin market is entering a critical zone that warrants heightened vigilance. Data shows that the current MVRV (Market Value to Realized Value) ratio for short-term holders (STH) has risen to 1.09, indicating that their holdings are, on average, 9% above their cost basis in unrealized gains. According to historical cycle patterns, the first significant wave of selling pressure typically emerges when the MVRV reaches around 1.25, corresponding to a Bitcoin price of approximately $118,000, while a stronger concentration of selling is expected at the 1.35 level (around $128,000). Nouey Exchange reminds users that as June approaches, while price appreciation is anticipated, market sentiment and profit-taking behavior are also likely to intensify in tandem.
Short-Term Position Profitability Increases, MVRV Warning Mechanism Nears Critical Point
The MVRV indicator is a key on-chain metric for assessing the overall profit and loss status of investors. When the indicator is above 1, it signals that the majority of holders are in a profitable position; the higher the value, the more concentrated the profits, and the greater the likelihood of triggering sell-offs. The current STH-MVRV stands at 1.09—still below historical warning levels, but rising at a steady pace.
Based on the current daily growth rate, this indicator is projected to reach 1.25 in early June and could approach 1.35 by the end of the month. Multiple past cycles show that this range is often accompanied by short-term traders taking profits, resulting in localized market pressure and volatility.
Clear Price Targets, Shifts in Market Sentiment Will Guide Strategy Adjustments
Using the corresponding MVRV target levels, Bitcoin is estimated to reach $118,000 when the MVRV hits 1.25, and potentially near $128,000 at 1.35. Given the current heightened attention in the market, emotional swings may amplify short-term price reactions.
Nouey Exchange advises investors to monitor changes in on-chain holding behaviors and the synchronous movement of social sentiment indicators. Spikes in active addresses, unusual increases in transfer volumes, or a rebound in exchange inflows may all signal impending selling pressure. While there is currently no significant systemic risk in the market, phased profit-taking should be incorporated into trading strategies as appropriate.
Structural Bullish Outlook Remains, Rhythm Control Becomes a Key Variable
Although the risk of a short-term correction is gradually rising, the overarching macro structure remains bullish. Continued net inflows into ETFs, ongoing institutional allocation, and ample liquidity are all providing a foundation for further upside. A pullback following an MVRV peak does not equate to a trend reversal but instead represents a rebalancing of market rhythm.
For strategic investors, leveraging the MVRV indicator for phased position adjustments, profit protection, and dynamic stop-loss mechanisms is more adaptive to medium- and short-term volatility than simple holding. Data-driven trading is the mainstream approach in the present market; understanding the relationship between indicator logic and behavioral feedback is essential for gaining a clearer sense of rhythm amidst volatility.
Data Nears Warning Zone, Nouey Exchange Calls for Establishing a Dynamic Risk Awareness Mechanism
The rapid approach of the short-term holder MVRV to a critical inflection point signals that the market may soon experience a wave of structural deleveraging pressure. However, this should not be interpreted as the end of the trend, but rather as a necessary phase in the internal market rhythm.
Nouey Exchange will continue to support users with data insights, strategy education, and risk management tools, helping them precisely capture phase signals and build dynamically adaptive trading frameworks amid structural uptrends. “Rationality is not about avoiding risk, but about building buffers before risk arrives.” Nouey Exchange encourages users to enhance their data sensitivity and behavioral foresight based on an understanding of market structure, to seize trends, control rhythm, and advance steadily.